Although the hype around WiMAX is quickly dissipating, we believe the standard has gained enough backing and volume to serve as an alternative for the provisioning of mobile broadband access. It has begun to carve out a tight niche tied to certain target opportunities, it has inspired a new wireless business model, and it has a flexible, flat, all-IP network architecture better suited than HSPA to providing Internet-based services. In contrast, however, the LTE standard has quickly gained substantial momentum. Since WiMAX 802.16e and LTE release 8 will provide similar real-world performance, ultimately the decisions of the largest WiMAX players may determine the fate of WiMAX. For example, Clearwire has been forthright about its intention to choose the technology that provides the best business case given timing and end-user demand for service quality and devices, making its commitment to WiMAX rather unclear. Will the WiMAX opportunity reach a critical point to drive vendor backing of the next iteration of WiMAX, 802.16m, which we expect will be finalized in 2010? The OFDMA architecture of both WiMAX and LTE will pave the way toward 4G networks, which as defined by the ITU-R achieve 1Gbps or more, so it is possible we will see a blending of the two standards.

This report analyzes the current WiMAX operations worldwide, evaluating operator business models, network economics and the overall market opportunity relative to UMTS/HSPA and LTE. The objective is to assess which technology delivers the most popular and profitable mobile voice, broadband and video services in the context of specific market conditions: case studies examine UQ Communications (in Japan), Clearwire (the US), Mobily (Saudi Arabia), Digicel (Caribbean), Tata (India), Umniah (Jordan) and Yota (Russia).

read more